tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post2484620197999529168..comments2024-03-29T02:53:03.321-04:00Comments on Moneyness: StablecoinJP Koninghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02559687323828006535noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-54929932359968898752016-01-02T10:33:01.359-05:002016-01-02T10:33:01.359-05:00The zero problem, as you put it, may be a non prob...The zero problem, as you put it, may be a non problem if the currency has developed a sufficient network effect. Unless thwarted by law, any spike towards zero would rather quickly be offset by demand from the bottom feeders in the market.<br /><br />If the mass of users find a better solution, then the value or price of the currency will tend to zero, but as a result of people leaving it for a better alternative. Is there a problem with that?Wawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05384226689559778050noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-52483161477237684612015-07-28T12:37:38.392-04:002015-07-28T12:37:38.392-04:00JP, that proves exactly what I said: the altcoins ...JP, that proves exactly what I said: the altcoins that failed don't have a zero price, they have zero (or close to zero) liquidity: they have been delisted from all the exchanges.Peter Šurdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17346161576941109337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-67168990646387895152015-07-28T10:15:45.861-04:002015-07-28T10:15:45.861-04:00"...that likely does not hold for any asset.&..."...that likely does not hold for any asset." <br /><br />That can't be, since then the price of a financial asset would never fall to zero. But we know from observation that many assets (stocks, bonds, deposits, etc) have become worthless. Just look at all the altcoins that have run into the zero problem. [<a href="http://www.mapofcoins.com/bitcoin" rel="nofollow">link</a>]JP Koninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02559687323828006535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-46591280990329102662015-07-28T06:27:51.444-04:002015-07-28T06:27:51.444-04:00More relevant than the question of low price is th...More relevant than the question of low price is the question of low liquidity. The more interesting economic issue with Zimbabwe dollars and Madoff's shares isn't that they decreased in value, but that they lost almost all liquidity. I remember writing about it in a comment on this site some time ago. For example, I presume that the Zimbabwean dollar was delisted from forex markets, and Madoff's shares can't be traded on the official exchanges anymore. And here a mechanism focusing on propping up the price may not help at all.Peter Šurdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02219200720577247444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-57708091040738470242015-07-28T02:06:05.221-04:002015-07-28T02:06:05.221-04:00Now we're talking about technicalities. The cr...Now we're talking about technicalities. The creator may decide to sell just like a slave owner in the past decided to sell. He may, for example, need to make payments and decides to dispose of the shares. The machine has some cash flow irrespective of how dividends are paid, or could borrow money to buy him off, or other machines can buy it outright. Just like a company nowadays can do a share buyback, or be subject to a takeover.<br /><br />Philosophically, for comparison, we could ask why parents allow their children to become independent individuals, why employment contracts leave space for private activities or why teachers allow their students to go out and use what they learned. At least one of the reasons is that even strictly economically, they may make better use of scarce resources that way.<br /><br />You shouldn't be talking to lawyers. Our legal system does not recognise this. I am talking about ownership from economic, not legalistic, perspective.Peter Šurdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02219200720577247444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-39193634476070835012015-07-28T00:56:04.791-04:002015-07-28T00:56:04.791-04:00Peter,
"The creator can, at the beginning, o...Peter,<br /><br />"The creator can, at the beginning, own all the shares of the machine, and then the machine can gradually buy him out as it's earning money. He may not even know that the buyer of the shares is the machine."<br /><br />Suppose the creator begins by owning the machine outright, like a slave. The machine may earn profits, but it is the creator who is entitled to those profits, even if the machine is programmed to spend the money in particular ways. Using the profits to buy shares from the creator makes no sense -- the creator already owns that money. Why would the creator consent to something like that? A slave has no way to buy its freedom. Of course, the creator could "free" the machine (as a slaveholder frees a slave). But then, I wonder what the legal status of the machine might be in this case? Is it really possible to say that legally, no one (or group) owns the machine and that machine owns itself? Should we be speaking to lawyers about this?David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-61793863927573665352015-07-27T22:52:10.620-04:002015-07-27T22:52:10.620-04:00Yes, that's correct. And that's all one ne...Yes, that's correct. And that's all one needs to get rid of the "zero price problem." In other words, it isn't a practical problem. The result is a theoretical proposition and hinges critically on an assumption that likely does not hold for any asset. David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-90160705906738495872015-07-27T22:48:48.751-04:002015-07-27T22:48:48.751-04:00Yes, I realize that. See here, for instance.
Ther...Yes, I realize that. See here, <a href="http://jpkoning.blogspot.ca/2013/04/bitcoins-plunge-protection-team.html" rel="nofollow">for instance</a>.<br /><br />There are probably people out there who held units in Bernie Madoff's investment scheme even after it was exposed because they wanted to consume some sort of affinity they felt they had with the man. So *theoretically* an investment with Madoff wasn't worthless. JP Koninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02559687323828006535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-46445912992134452592015-07-27T19:59:42.605-04:002015-07-27T19:59:42.605-04:00You realize, of course, that the $0 equilibrium ex...You realize, of course, that the $0 equilibrium exists *only* if the object in question has *strictly zero* intrinsic worth? <br /><br />So, if there were people out there that sort of liked the idea of holding and trading bitcoin, just for its own sake, just to screw the man, or whatever, that this minuscule amount of backing would *theoretically* eliminate the zero-price equilibrium? <br /><br />It is the fragility of this theoretical result that leads me to question the empirical relevance of the zero price problem.David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-31306187001029757592015-07-27T09:40:57.212-04:002015-07-27T09:40:57.212-04:00"It may depend on how you define "medium..."It may depend on how you define "medium of exchange." If you think of MOE as simply an bookentry object, or its physical equivalent (paper note), then you are correct."<br /><br />The definition I'm using for medium of exchange is anything that people accept in trade because they anticipate being able to pass it on. Banknotes and gold have non-monetary properties (ie. value apart from their role as media of exchange) while the bitUSD is anchored by its peg. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has no non-monetary properties, it a pure medium of exchange. And like any other Ponzi asset, a price of $0 is as good as a price of $10,000.JP Koninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02559687323828006535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-1852688833921597852015-07-26T15:44:53.182-04:002015-07-26T15:44:53.182-04:00For the purposes of our debate, we can define &quo...For the purposes of our debate, we can define "ownership" as infrastructure for enforcing economic exchange. Control is somewhat different, it does not require ownership or legitimacy. This ownership infrastructure is a prerequisite for trade. A machine must be able to enter into a contract and have the infrastructure enforce it afterwards. Otherwise it cannot act as an economic unit.<br /><br />However, ince the infrastructure is available, and the machine starts entering into contracts, it is its own economic unit independent of the creator of the machine. It can allow others to invest in it and pay dividends, it can hire people or machines, it can itself invest into other economic units. It should not confuse us that it behaves deterministically, or that its incentives are aligned with those of its creator, or that the statist law does not recognise this. You can attack the machine claiming that you are enforcing property rights, but this does not necessarily make it so, anyone can attack anyone irrespective of whether there is infrastructure for this or not.<br /><br />The creator can, at the beginning, own all the shares of the machine, and then the machine can gradually buy him out as it's earning money. He may not even know that the buyer of the shares is the machine.<br /><br />With respect to public goods, check out "Dominant Assurance Contracts" described by Alex Tabarrok. This is now possible with cryptocurrencies.Peter Šurdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02219200720577247444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-10090480346747458572015-07-26T15:19:46.425-04:002015-07-26T15:19:46.425-04:00JP probably thinks that if utility depends only on...JP probably thinks that if utility depends only on the network effect, it means it can disappear altogheter. I think that while technically true, practically irrelevant. The same could be said about other goods subject to the network effect, like the internet: if everyone stopped using it, then IP addresses will have no value. But to argue that in order to prevent this, there needs to be an additional source of utility is a non-sequitur, because this additional feature could very well turn out to be a burden, and cause the collapse of the network effect.Peter Šurdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02219200720577247444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-32214648950908431642015-07-26T15:00:46.277-04:002015-07-26T15:00:46.277-04:00Peter,
Thanks for the link. The lecture was inter...Peter,<br /><br />Thanks for the link. The lecture was interesting, but did not really answer my questions. The notion of a machine "owning itself" sounds ridiculous. In part, he is confusing the notion of a machine "operating itself." Ownership and control are conceptually distinct. <br /><br />The creator of these machines must be incentivized in some manner and invariably, this will mean having ownership rights defined over the stream of profits generated by the robot.<br /><br />Near the end he talks a bit about a public funding model...a system of voluntary taxation to fund a public good...but he is talking pie in the sky here. Even in the cases where this could happen, the legal system would (I presume) endow the public with the liability associated with the robot. <br /><br />So when you replied to Nick to say that bitcoin can be owned by a machine and the legal system cannot prevent this, I am inclined to disagree on both counts. If I build a robot to act as an assassin, believe me, the FBI will exert great effort to track down and prosecute the owner. It's not impossible to do, not even if all transactions are governed by BTC.<br /><br />Still, I have to give all of this some more thought. It's all very interesting!David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-14056331526053177832015-07-26T14:33:01.576-04:002015-07-26T14:33:01.576-04:00JP,
I do not believe my argument to be circular....JP, <br /><br />I do not believe my argument to be circular. It may depend on how you define "medium of exchange." If you think of MOE as simply an bookentry object, or its physical equivalent (paper note), then you are correct.<br /><br />But Bitcoin is more than a bookentry object; it is a communication system. It has intrinsic value the same way that a telephone connecting two people has intrinsic value (true, Robinson Crusoe attaches no value to an unconnected telephone, but so what?). <br /><br />Even if bitcoin itself is no longer valued as a payment instrument, it can still have use in communication. This is the intrinsic value I am talking about. David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-62956302486267758302015-07-26T09:48:51.580-04:002015-07-26T09:48:51.580-04:00I'm not familiar with the legal issues. In thi...I'm not familiar with the legal issues. In this case, does a machine own the assets that uphold a bitUSD's value? It could be that it holds assets on behalf of the person who has submitted the collateral to back each bitUSD, sort of like a trust, ETF, or mutual fund. <br /><br />As for the problem you have with the zero problem (<a href="http://jpkoning.blogspot.ca/2015/02/the-zero-problem.html?showComment=1437885106003#c171428608695582542" rel="nofollow">here</a>):<br /><br />"In the case of Bitcoin, this epsilon backing comes from the intrinsic value in a P2P global value transfer system."<br /><br />The point you're making is circular. That a medium of exchange has value because it is a medium of exchange doesn't resolve anything. To have intrinsic value, it needs to have some value apart from being a medium of exchange. JP Koninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02559687323828006535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-82766561428762385932015-07-26T06:36:30.905-04:002015-07-26T06:36:30.905-04:00In this context, it means that the machine acts as...In this context, it means that the machine acts as an autonomous economic unit, on its own behalf, rather than on the behalf of the owner of the machine. It has its own economic goals. It could be that these goals are identical with those of the owner of the machines, but once it's running, the owner can only influence it indirectly, by economic incentives.<br /><br />And in order for this to work, the machine must be able to assert property rights over the assets. It means it is incompatible with the current legal system, because this assumes that people are the only carrier of rights. Even separate legal entities such as corporations must have humans in executive functions. A machine-executive is not allowed.<br /><br />For an example, I recommend Mike Hearn's lecture: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pu4PAMFPo5YPeter Šurdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02219200720577247444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-37386780270957965682015-07-26T00:45:30.595-04:002015-07-26T00:45:30.595-04:00What does it mean for a machine to own an asset? S...What does it mean for a machine to own an asset? Surely, some person must own the machine and therefore the underlying asset, at least indirectly.<br /><br />Is there some legal stuff going on here that I am unaware of? If so, it seems critical and I'm surprised it's been left out of your discussion. David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-23788941911833208492015-07-18T18:51:16.931-04:002015-07-18T18:51:16.931-04:00Ah! OK.Ah! OK.Nick Rowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04982579343160429422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-63516525464770201432015-07-18T16:14:19.197-04:002015-07-18T16:14:19.197-04:00...as an aside, from the Nick Rowe archives:
htt......as an aside, from the Nick Rowe archives: <br /><br />http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2013/12/backedcoin-vs-unbackedcoin.htmlJP Koninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02559687323828006535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-79098190070846437122015-07-18T16:05:54.457-04:002015-07-18T16:05:54.457-04:00Yes, if stablecoins become popular with the public...Yes, if stablecoins become popular with the public, I don't see why banks wouldn't just issue their own versions. JP Koninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02559687323828006535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-90640296266118266352015-07-18T16:02:35.495-04:002015-07-18T16:02:35.495-04:00What Peter said. You need to be able to hold the b...What Peter said. You need to be able to hold the backing asset on the blockchain, which you can't do with existing mortgages and whatnot. JP Koninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02559687323828006535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-78824371789432459692015-07-18T16:01:18.405-04:002015-07-18T16:01:18.405-04:00Sorry, I'm not following what you're sayin...Sorry, I'm not following what you're saying.JP Koninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02559687323828006535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-54525745926018875172015-07-18T07:52:39.966-04:002015-07-18T07:52:39.966-04:00> But why doesn't the bitshares bank hold a...> But why doesn't the bitshares bank hold assets like mortgages?<br />Because mortgages reference exogenous assets which cannot be owned by computers. The legal system does not permit computers to own houses and computers cannot preempt this. BitUSD and bitcoins are the opposite: they can be owned by computers and the legal system cannot preempt this.Peter Šurdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02219200720577247444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-34454990392010003602015-07-18T06:57:49.246-04:002015-07-18T06:57:49.246-04:00bitshares look just like shares in a bank. More vo...bitshares look just like shares in a bank. More volatile than the underlying assets, because the deposits are less volatile<br /><br />But why doesn't the bitshares bank hold assets like mortgages? It could be exactly like a bank, except it uses a different type of cheque. It's like a bank, where your Interac card disappears, leaving only the password.<br /><br />Damned if I can see the difference.<br /><br />Nick Rowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04982579343160429422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6704573462403312459.post-41343135221471508182015-07-17T22:46:52.017-04:002015-07-17T22:46:52.017-04:00No, the new smart card technology provides hardwar...No, the new smart card technology provides hardware secure card to card exchanges. The exchanges always report volatility honestly, and the card network is secure from human tampering. Hence volatility is an endogenous, managed variable; the pricing between currencies always the Black-Scholes strike price. Thus all currencies are stable up to the transaction costs, but card to card exchanges are nearly free.<br /><br />You might want to talk about popular currencies. But any currency set up in the network is stable. A currency may be created on the spot for a night of poker between friends, one may be created to count chickens among the chicken association, create one on the spot for tax collection, or create them for value points and consumer discounts, like frequent flyer miles. But they are always guaranteed to be volatility weighted to maximum likelihood, and thus always stable.Matt Younghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08404998406161097199noreply@blogger.com